Business News Opinion Chinese Perceptions Of India

India’s revocation of Article 370 and promulgating Ladakh as a Union Territory has raised concern and reinforced views of ulterior Indian designs on China.

Written by Guest
Updated: March 18, 2024 15:17 IST
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As India rises, China is even more deeply suspicious of India’s strategic ambition and intentions.

By Lt Gen P R Shankar (Ret.)

Relations between India and China are rapidly changing. In the recent past there have been some articles from both China and India which highlight this change. In one strain, Chinese authors opine that India’s economic growth, diplomatic heft and its military prowess makes it a major power.
They also add that India’s rise on the global and regional geopolitical stage needs to be taken into consideration by China.
Some have even started talking of a ‘Bharat Narrative’.
There are other seamier strains which emanate from China.
These are of an India which is beset by a colonial hangover, ritualistic revivalism and knotty ethnic/religious fault lines despite its economic rise.
This derogatory seam still depicts India as part of the philistines and inferior to China. All notes are not definitely sweet! On the whole, there is no doubt that China is re-evaluating India’s rise and the challenges it poses to it as it declines.
In this context, it must be remembered that India sees China as its primary threat. On the other hand, China sees India as a secondary challenge. China has larger goals irrespective of the fact that they are becoming increasingly unattainable. Its perceptions are also coloured accordingly.

While there is no doubt that there is a need to improve relations with our largest and powerful neighbour there is also a need to understand that one should not get carried away by some of this fresh gushing and outreach. The Chinese have a deep rooted and long term view of India and themselves which is based on their world view. This basic template cannot be wished away. In any case the Chinese who believe in realpolitik will not!

China’s Historical Mistrust of India

China’s mistrust of India is deep rooted and is based on a sense of misplaced superiority. It sees itself as having freed itself from colonial legacies through communism. Resultantly , communist China derisively refers to a democratic India as hanging on to colonial legacies. This is accompanied by an intense dislike due to the fact that India has given the Dalai Lama a shelter in Dharamsala. This view is permanent and not erasable.

As India rises, China is even more deeply suspicious of India’s strategic ambition and intentions. In the current environment of geopolitical uncertainty there is huge negativity in the China India relationship, characterised by constant tension.
This is reflected in the fact that China, besides of course Pakistan, is the only country which opposes India’s rise. This is evident in its strident opposition to India getting a permanent seat on the UN Security Council or in the nuclear suppliers’ group or even in designating jihadi Pakistani groups/ individuals as terrorists in the UN.

Aspirations and

China’s Geopolitical Outlook

China’s geopolitical outlook runs along two streams. The Chinese feel that they are the sole power to shape the Asian order. This is derived from the fact that they think that they were an integral part in defeating Japan during the second WW. This is also reinforced by the fact that the CPC feels that it has succeeded in uprooting all vestiges of colonial legacy from China and supplanting it with Chinese characteristics and values whereas all other Asian nations continue to suffer from a colonial hangover.

China’s rapid rise has reinforced the belief that it is naturally superior to all others and is at the top of the Asian hierarchy. It does not recognise that India and China have common borders with common neighbours and have their own deep-rooted interests based on civilisational values and culture.

At a global level, the 2008 financial crisis convinced China that it has arrived on the world stage. From then on, the Chinese geopolitical outlook is largely through the prism of Sino – US equations.
This is an extension of their traditional view that the global power competition is a triangular one between the United States, the Soviet Union, and China. Now that the USSR does not exist, China is the main player and is destined to replace the USA at the top.
The Chinese also view that democratic states tend to be weak in solving their domestic problems. In this construct, India and the USA are clubbed together as weak and crumbling societies.

The Chinese Perception of the Border/ LAC Issue

The border issue is the crux of the problem between China and India despite its constant attempt to down play it as an insignificant issue. The Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh, refusals to even recognise Aksai Chin as disputed territory, and constant attempts to change the status quo along the LAC in their favour at all costs, underlines China’s macro approach and perception of the LAC issue. China has not hesitated to use force to enforce its claims. This is the bottom line since 1962. In this context it was interesting to see what the Chinese view as the Indian approach to the LAC/Border.

The Chinese have been of the view that India has adopted a ‘forward policy’ on the border and seeks unilateral changes on the border. This dates back to 1962. Since then, this perception has only magnified. India improving infrastructure on its side of the LAC/border has served to reinforce this perception. In fact a think tank likens the current period as being similar to the period of India China relations in 1959-62. Even more interestingly they equate the current Indian outlook on the LAC as Nehruvian! One must understand that the border infrastructure improvement on the Indian side nullifies the advantage which China has enjoyed hitherto fore and induces uncertainty in China. China also feels that Indian troops now patrol the LAC more frequently and assertively to which the Chinese are forced to respond. China further feels that India has improved upon its capability to carry out intrusions and infiltration into its territory.
China thinks that India has changed its tactics and will not hesitate to use force. Resultantly, Chinese opine that face offs will increase and become fiercer.

India’s revocation of Article 370 and promulgating Ladakh as being, Union Territory has raised concern and reinforced views of ulterior Indian designs on China. They perceive that India has included a significant part of Chinese territory beyond the current China-India boundary into its administrative jurisdiction.
China feels that this act undermines Chinese territorial sovereignty. Hence, after twenty one rounds of talks at Corps Commanders level, it is very clear that China and India have different perceptions of what constitutes ‘Status Quo’ or ‘normalcy’ in the disputed areas and along the LAC.
The situation as it stands is the ‘Status Quo’ as per Chinese perception and ‘normalcy’ is what is to be sought from here on. China has shown remarkable amnesia(by choice) while stonewalling and refusing to accept India’s viewpoint consistently.
It needs to be understood that it was the Chinese who embarked upon changing the ‘Status Quo’ on ground quite deliberately in 2020. Now, by insisting on placing the differences on the boundary issue on the backburner, emphasising that it is in mutual interest to return to normal relations as early as possible and downplaying the standoff, the Chinese are actually indicating that they would prefer to leave their threat in place. The singular message which comes out is that the Chinese perceive that there will be a time when they will need to resort to use of force in future. Mutatis mutandis, this threat in being, is a pressure tactic all along the LAC to ensure that India remains fixed.
It is anathema to even think that China will make any concessions on the border issue. The Chinese want to settle the India China border on their terms. This fundamental fact does not change.

The India Plus USA vs China Thinking
The growing US – India relationship started making a significant impact on Chinese perceptions of India from as far back as 2010-2015.
There has been an uptick since the pandemic. India is no more seen as neutral or no longer nonaligned. As far as China is concerned it is firmly on the US side. China fears that the India US strategic partnership can turn into an alliance. A militarised QUAD as part of the USA’s Indo Pacific strategy is a bad dream for China.
China also believes that India has become more adventurous since its ‘new-found’ alignment with the United States. China also sees that India uses advantages offered in the emerging international environment to its detriment. India’s efforts to build up its manufacturing capacity based on decoupling and de-risking by the USA and West is seen through this prism. China also considers that India will use the USA as a lever in any border crisis. Further, China feels miffed by the fact that the USA considers India a significant player in the Indo-Pacific Strategy. This is galling to China which views that India has no place in the Chinese vision for the regional order.

Regional Dominance
India’s ties with its neighbours in the sub-continent and in the far east Asia are based on multiple factors of connectivity, language, culture, religion, ethnicity and common heritage. Under such conditions China does not even seem to recognise that India has its connect, concerns and interests in the region with roots stemming from its civilisation. In fact, Chinese think tanks have opined that India seeks regional dominance and practices a South Asian Monroe Doctrine. They also recognize that Chinese influence has limits when measured up to India’s regional dominance based on history. In order to balance India’s historical influence in South Asia, its capability as a regional power, and its global potential, China has been propping up Pakistan and has entrapped other neighbours in a debt trap.

China has made significant investment in Pakistan in those territories which are in dispute with India. In doing so it has wilfully entered into the dispute on Pakistan’s side. That is blatant and deliberately anti Indian. The aim is simple. Keep India down through Pakistan, while progressing our own interests. In such conditions what India demands – reining in Pak’s terrorist activity, designating Pakistan based groups as terrorists in the UN are actually impossible for China to even consider.

Political Perceptions
China has this very political perception that conservative forces represented by RSS oppose Chinese investment since it might lead to dumping and pose a risk to India’s security. Further China feels that India wants to copy its model and eventually replace it in global manufacturing and supply chains.
It does not understand that India does not want to be another China- polluted, and degraded to the core. That is the worst fate to befall India, which wants to be a better country on its terms. However, there is real concern in China that the Indian government has changed the model of India China relationship and is prepared to use force in dealing with any crisis. The view in China is also that India has changed the goal posts on the relationship. This is an important factor since most policies in China are based on politics and can never be divorced from it.

The Perception of Narrowing Differentials
As India grows, and China declines, the differential between both the countries will reduce. The danger in this paradigm is that while both recognise that India is growing rapidly, China does not even realise that it is declining! That heats up the environment. In such a situation, India’s need to settle the border before moving ahead in the relationship is seen regressively in China. It feels that if the border is settled then China loses leverage over India. Further it feels that India might come up with new and unreasonable demands or might even turn hostile. In such a situation, the clash and overlap of regional vision, interests and influence is likely to tend towards greater animosity. This will be compounded by another factor. As India grows, the Sino Indian relationship will be more characterised by competition and less of cooperation. Chinese authors feel that it is time that India and China set up a ‘competition management mechanism’ and prevent ‘competition’ from escalating into ‘confrontation’. There is a bottom line which emerges. China does not want to take the risk of a full fledged confrontation with India.

Conclusion
India and China are big civilisational powers on the move. While China’s rise was rapid and is peaking, India has just begun its rise. Hence there is an economic, military and diplomatic differential between the two countries in favour of China at present. At this point of time when the Chinese say we must show mutual sensitivity to each other’s concerns and interests it means that India must kowtow to Chinese global interests and concerns. However China need not reciprocate because India’s interests are very local and hierarchically lower. Simply put, China is at the top and does not consider India an equal. Further many Chinese have opined that China’s distrust and hostility toward India run deep, and vice versa. With such incompatible interests there is very little chance of any major reconciliation specially since the inter-se differential between the countries is narrowing. If anything the chances that China will put all possible impediments in India’s rise is a given certainty. This much is evident in most writings. In days gone by, India and China might have coexisted due to mutual isolation. That is over. The indications and expectations from China are that the relationship is in for turbulence for a long period of time ahead. India needs to girdle up for it.

The author is currently a Professor in the Aerospace Department of IIT Madras. He writes extensively on defence and strategic affairs @ http://www.gunnersshot.com

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